Global fossil-fuel emissions are projected to edge downward in 2026, marking a rare break in the long climb of planet-warming pollution. The new projection from the Global Carbon Project puts the decline at 0.4%, with solar and wind growth helping push the total lower while the Iran conflict delivers a far less encouraging assist.
The 21st annual Global Carbon Budget estimates that fossil fuels will generate approximately 38.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide this year. Oil-related emissions are expected to fall 1.9%, while natural-gas emissions decline by 0.3%. Coal emissions, however, are projected to rise 0.6%, underscoring how uneven the energy transition remains. The accompanying research tracks emissions and carbon sinks across the atmosphere, oceans, land ecosystems, and human activity.
The drop is not solely a clean-energy victory. Researchers link much of the oil reduction to an energy shock caused by the Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global petroleum and gas shipments. With supplies constrained and prices pushed higher, consumption has weakened in ways that could reverse if the geopolitical crisis eases.
That distinction matters. The Global Carbon Project’s figures suggest that renewable power is beginning to restrain fossil-fuel growth, but they do not yet show a broad, permanent collapse in emissions. The projected result also comes with considerable uncertainty: estimates cited by Carbon Brief span from a 1.5% decline to a 0.6% increase.
Total human-caused carbon dioxide pollution is still expected to rise when land-use change is included. The 2026 budget projects roughly 43.3 billion tons from fossil fuels, cement, and land-use emissions combined, compared with about 42.8 billion tons in 2025. That means a small fossil-fuel dip does not yet represent a decisive turn for the climate.
For the energy industry, the signal is nevertheless significant: solar and wind are expanding rapidly enough to help offset demand for coal, oil, and gas, even as geopolitical shocks reshape consumption. The next budgets will show whether 2026 becomes the beginning of a sustained peak in fossil emissions—or merely a temporary pause created by war, supply disruption, and unusually volatile energy markets.
