Rising seas could reshape the survival map for roughly 15,000 land vertebrate species by the end of the century, with islands and low-lying coastal regions facing the sharpest pressure. A global assessment published in Science estimates that between 14,325 and 15,324 species could see at least part of their habitat inundated, depending on future emissions. The study’s headline finding is not that all of those animals will lose entire ranges, but that coastal flooding could remove habitat from an extraordinary share of Earth’s amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals.
Researchers evaluated 34,120 terrestrial vertebrate species—about 90% of known land vertebrates—by combining habitat maps with regional sea-level projections. The modeling examined conditions in 2050 and 2100 across five emissions scenarios, while accounting for local differences such as tides, land subsidence, land uplift, and existing flood defenses. The work was led by researchers associated with Sun Yat-sen University and international collaborators, including Ma Liang and Yaping Chen, and was published under the title Safeguarding Global Terrestrial Vertebrate Species From Future Sea-Level Rise.
The exposure is uneven across animal groups. Depending on the scenario, 57% to 63% of the birds examined could lose some habitat to inundation, along with 47% to 52% of mammals, 28% to 36% of reptiles, and 20% to 24% of amphibians. Reptiles and amphibians may be especially vulnerable where their remaining habitat is fragmented or difficult to replace, even though a smaller share of those groups is exposed than birds or mammals.
The projections become more severe under the highest-emissions pathway. As many as 13,680 species could face inundated habitat by 2050, rising to 15,324 by 2100. Most affected species are not expected to lose their entire ranges, but the study estimates that the number projected to lose more than 10% of their habitat could climb from 18 in 2050 to 109 by the century’s end under that scenario. That distinction matters: partial habitat loss can still reduce breeding space, isolate populations, and make it harder for animals to move inland.
The timing reflects a broader acceleration in the physical threat. NASA measurements show the global rate of sea-level rise increased from roughly 2.1 millimeters per year in 1993 to about 4.5 millimeters per year by 2023. Researchers cited in the study brief expect the rate could approach 10 millimeters annually in the near future, increasing the likelihood that coastal ecosystems will be squeezed between advancing water and developed or otherwise unsuitable land.
Conservation planning is therefore central to the study rather than an afterthought. The researchers identified dry areas that could serve as refuges for species exposed to future inundation, but more than 96% of those potential refuges currently sit outside protected areas. Securing corridors, expanding reserves, and protecting higher ground before it becomes isolated could give wildlife room to retreat. The projections are not an extinction list, but they do offer governments a species-specific warning about where coastal protection and habitat planning may matter most.
